Friday I took a day off work to accompany Gary Spencer to financial seminars. He wants me to use the information in some campaigns he wants to run (as well as being a friend he is also a client - not always the best combination). So at half-nine I was in Chiswell Street (walking along the north side of the road, which is in Islington).

Crossing the road into the City, I went into The Brewery - formerly Whitbreads Brewery, now a conference centre and banqueting suite. Samuel Whitbread moved the brewery here in 1749 and lived on the site in the Partners House. This is one of the few industrial buildings to survive in the Square Mile.

Following signs, I arrived at the reception area and was given a name badge. I met Gary Spencer straight away. We got some coffee and almond croissants (they were very good - I had four).

A bell rang and everyone went upstairs to the main conference hall. It was dark inside the hall, spotlights illuminating the stage where the Fund Managers were due to speak. Over five hundred financial advisors were in the hall, over-whelmingly male and dark-suited.
As we went in we were given heavy packs of information about the Fund. We were also each given an electronic voting pad (like a TV remote control). Gary Spencer went right to the front where we sat in the second row.
A grey haired old buffer in the row in front turned round, nodded to Gary, and said: “I didn’t see you at the Awards last night.”
The lights dimmed and the show began. The master of ceremonies (if I can call him that) was a man in his late fifties, trim build, greying (and thinning) hair. He was slightly round shouldered, and was wearing a double-breasted suit with the jacket tightly done up. This produced an odd effect so that it looked as if the tightly buttoned jacket was pulling his shoulders down. His manner towards the audience was very friendly. He walked up and down the stage as he talked.
“Volatility has returned to the market!” he said (nervous laughter throughout the hall). “We are all wondering whether this is the end of the five year Bull Market. As you know, we don’t have a House view” (implying that he very definitely had a private view).
He introduced the first of the Fund Managers, a very conservative-looking character.
“The Asian franchise is excelling… we are trending in the right direction… we have over two hundred and sixty research executives… we have new funds launching, including the EMEA Fund… we have got away from being decision tree product led… innovation continues and we have big ambitions in the retirement market…”
We used our voting pads to respond to questions about the new Financial Services Agency consultation paper (which was not popular).
A new Fund Manager appeared on the stage, accompanied by rock music (Queen). He was an Australian (saying “git” instead of “get”), very pugnacious in style. All his statements began with “I” implying he was the Fund personified.
“Are we climbing the wall of worry or is this the start of a Bear Market?” he said. “Earnings are the things that drive stock markets… in Europe the performance record on inflation is good, even though globalisation is not such a factor in the labour market… unemployment has peaked, which is feeding through to domestic demand in Germany…” He looked out at the audience as if surprised at how well things were doing.
The next Fund Manager appeared on the stage.
“Runs on banks! Credit crunches! Suddenly Fixed Incomes have become exciting!” Laughter in the hall. The Fund Manager beamed at us. “Triple Bs have flatlined… Banks are having to support huge volumes of off-balance sheet vehicles…the rating agencies havn’t done a good job… excessive leverage by investors and consumers… what has encouraged the leverage has been cheap finance compared to growth in the economy… there has been poor underwriting standards in the sub-prime sector…”
He ended with a moment of sudden candour: “The fact is we
need volatility to make money!” (general noises of approval around the hall).
Yet another Fund Manager took the stage, harsh foreign accent, very aggressive movements up and down the platform.
“It’s been a special year. It’s been four distinct quarters. I’ve looked for unrecognised value wherever in the world it might be. You would have almost tripled your money since two thousand and four by investing in US railroads. Cider is a growing sector. Energy has lots of bottlenecks which mean opportunities to make money.”
A warning on inflation: “Inflation is dependant on oil and the price of oil is eighty dollars per barrel. We need the oil price to come down otherwise the inflation rate will become a problem. It makes sense to stay invested in equities.”
A softly spoken Fund Manager took the stage to talk about the Retirement Fund. “Life expectancy is increasing, and making sure your investments last through retirement is a challenge.” He paused, then said with mock solemnity: “There is nothing safer than cash in the bank” (bellows of laughter around the hall, possibly with an hysterical edge to it).
The last speaker was a gentleman in his sixties, one of the most distinguished fund managers in the country (“The English Warren Buffet” Gary told me).
“The City has become much more professional. Much more of a meritocracy. When I started I was doing my own dealing as well as picking the shares. In the old days we could go out and visit companies and collect information that other people didn’t know. Now all the facts are known, and the emphasis is upon the interpretation of data. There has been a growth in independent research that no-one else has. Be wary when investors’ appetite for risk is high - that sort of thing worries me. When investments are based on models the models are only as good as the assumptions. When investors lose lots of money that is a behaviour-changing event…” (lots of laughter at this last remark).
We left the hall before the presentations ended. Getting in a taxi, Gary Spencer told the driver to take us to the Savoy Hotel. The roads were very congested.
We arrived at the hotel and went down into the basement levels, past the Ballroom, eventually arriving at a suite where yet another financial seminar was being held. Into a large room where a buffet lunch was just ending. About eighty financial advisors were moving from this room into an adjacent hall. Gary and I loaded our plates with food (smoked salmon, heated pastries, ornate cakes). There was also just time to get a glass of white wine. I was eating and drinking so quickly that I gave myself indigestion.

Putting down our plates but keeping hold of our glasses of wine, we went into the hall where the presentation was to held. This was a more intimate event than the one at The Brewery in Chiswell Street. Three people sat in the platform.
“This is a very distinguished audience, if I may say that without sounding sycophantic” said the first speaker.
The second speaker got up:
“You can’t buy past performance except for past poor performance - funds that have been poor continue to be poor… we look into portfolios to see exactly where performance comes from… we don’t think expenses matter - the FSA thinks expenses matter, but they don’t always get things right” (lots of laughter around the hall).
The third speaker got up:
“Is the US economy going to have a hard or soft landing?… In the US the third year of a presidential cycle is always good for equities… Brazil is one of my favourite markets… the oil price will remain high, and if anything will go higher… we are sowing the seeds of much higher inflation… just normal foodstuffs are going up by enormous margins…”
The seminar came to an end. I felt exhausted. Gary Spencer and I went up to the hotel lobby where we had arranged to meet Charles Frappe (this was the first time he and Gary had met).

At a table towards one side of the court we sat down and ordered some tea. The tea arrived in huge white tea pots, one per person. Above is my cup, just before I put a little milk into it. Tiger Hill tea from the Nilgiri Hills in India. I had five cups, and every one was delicious. I let Gary Spencer and Charles Frappe talk to each other while I sat back and enjoyed the tea, transported by the brew to a state of near nirvana (or at least that's how it felt).
More on Tiger Hill tea:
http://www.stashtea.com/w-111069.htm