Jon Cruddas MP, writing in the Daily Mirror, is suggesting that UKIP are a threat to the Conservative party and will be a game-changing factor for the next general election http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jon-cruddas-ukip-boss-nigel-1512694
It would of course greatly benefit the Labour party if UKIP were to take away Conservative votes.
But possibly Jon Cruddas may be over-optimistic.
As soon as you start to analyse UKIP it seems to evaporate. No leaders apart from Nigel Farage, no substantial reserves of money, little in the way of established organisation in the constituencies. UKIP appears to be practising a variation of blitzkrieg politics - everything thrown into the front-line attack with a certain amount of "shock and awe" generated but nothing in reserve and no permanent occupation of ground gained.
Given the MEPs gained at the last Euro election we should, by this point, be hearing from UKIP about the Westminster seats within those Euro constituencies that they expect to win in 2015. But so far there is nothing. This suggests that there is no party organisation within those newly-won Euro constituencies that they can focus on more conventional electioneering.
Look at the quality of the UKIP shadow cabinet. Apart from Nigel Farage there are no recognisable names. Polices seem to be a mish-mash of me-too Conservatism and wacky ideas thought up on the spur of the moment.
The comparison often made with the SDP of the 1980s is entirely invalid. Whatever you think of Shirley Williams, she is at least a significant intellectual figure able to take raw political ideas and formulate them into a coherent philosophy integrated into every area of policy. UKIP has no-one that even comes close to matching the intellectual under-pinning that supported the SDP.
And we should not forget that ultimately the SDP failed - the first past the post system has prevented the emergence of any serious new party since the creation of the Labour party over a hundred years ago.
Probably the current UKIP surge will continue until the next Euro elections. And the party is likely to do well in those elections (mainly due to failings in the Labour and Conservative offerings on Europe). But afterwards the UKIP tide will probably recede.
And do not discount the possibility that UKIP implodes before the Euro elections. Managing political parties is messy. Volunteers are difficult to command, especially where there is no existing tradition of loyalty. Door-step supporters are fickle unless you keep going back to them (and above all have the organisation to get the support out on the day). Mainstream media is supposed to be waning in influence, but UKIP will struggle unless they are endorsed by at least one major newspaper. Some Conservatives have "gone over" to UKIP, but no major figures and if you look at the defections they tend to be the dissatisfied loud-mouths who will make trouble whatever party they are in.
So I'm afraid we must conclude that Jon Cruddas is indulging in wishful thinking by trying to big-up the UKIP threat to the Conservatives.
It would of course greatly benefit the Labour party if UKIP were to take away Conservative votes.
But possibly Jon Cruddas may be over-optimistic.
As soon as you start to analyse UKIP it seems to evaporate. No leaders apart from Nigel Farage, no substantial reserves of money, little in the way of established organisation in the constituencies. UKIP appears to be practising a variation of blitzkrieg politics - everything thrown into the front-line attack with a certain amount of "shock and awe" generated but nothing in reserve and no permanent occupation of ground gained.
Given the MEPs gained at the last Euro election we should, by this point, be hearing from UKIP about the Westminster seats within those Euro constituencies that they expect to win in 2015. But so far there is nothing. This suggests that there is no party organisation within those newly-won Euro constituencies that they can focus on more conventional electioneering.
Look at the quality of the UKIP shadow cabinet. Apart from Nigel Farage there are no recognisable names. Polices seem to be a mish-mash of me-too Conservatism and wacky ideas thought up on the spur of the moment.
The comparison often made with the SDP of the 1980s is entirely invalid. Whatever you think of Shirley Williams, she is at least a significant intellectual figure able to take raw political ideas and formulate them into a coherent philosophy integrated into every area of policy. UKIP has no-one that even comes close to matching the intellectual under-pinning that supported the SDP.
And we should not forget that ultimately the SDP failed - the first past the post system has prevented the emergence of any serious new party since the creation of the Labour party over a hundred years ago.
Probably the current UKIP surge will continue until the next Euro elections. And the party is likely to do well in those elections (mainly due to failings in the Labour and Conservative offerings on Europe). But afterwards the UKIP tide will probably recede.
And do not discount the possibility that UKIP implodes before the Euro elections. Managing political parties is messy. Volunteers are difficult to command, especially where there is no existing tradition of loyalty. Door-step supporters are fickle unless you keep going back to them (and above all have the organisation to get the support out on the day). Mainstream media is supposed to be waning in influence, but UKIP will struggle unless they are endorsed by at least one major newspaper. Some Conservatives have "gone over" to UKIP, but no major figures and if you look at the defections they tend to be the dissatisfied loud-mouths who will make trouble whatever party they are in.
So I'm afraid we must conclude that Jon Cruddas is indulging in wishful thinking by trying to big-up the UKIP threat to the Conservatives.
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