To those who are wondering what long-term effect a UKIP victory will have in the EU elections, I think it will be worse for Labour than for the Conservatives.
Most of the Conservative defectors to UKIP will return to the Conservatives in 2015 because of the referendum offer.
Labour defectors will have no such impulse to return to their tribal vote.
Of course, I am aware of the perfidy of those who have seized power in the Conservative party. David Cameron saying "I will not be Prime Minister in a Coalition that does not go ahead with a referendum" is not really good enough. It leaves open the possibility of a hung Parliament with David Cameron stepping sideways (to Foreign Secretary say) and someone else becoming Prime Minister and reneging on the referendum promise.
So that referendum commitment needs to be looked at again and placed beyond all doubt.
Most of the Conservative defectors to UKIP will return to the Conservatives in 2015 because of the referendum offer.
Labour defectors will have no such impulse to return to their tribal vote.
Of course, I am aware of the perfidy of those who have seized power in the Conservative party. David Cameron saying "I will not be Prime Minister in a Coalition that does not go ahead with a referendum" is not really good enough. It leaves open the possibility of a hung Parliament with David Cameron stepping sideways (to Foreign Secretary say) and someone else becoming Prime Minister and reneging on the referendum promise.
So that referendum commitment needs to be looked at again and placed beyond all doubt.
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