In the New Statesman (21st May) George Eaton reports that UKIP membership is "surging" towards 30,000 http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/ukips-membership-surges-towards-30000
Bizarrely he also refers to the Conservative Party membership total for 1953 (what possible relevance can that have to the situation in 2013?).
Commentators have fallen into a lazy sort of agreement that UKIP is doing to the Conservatives what the SDP did to Labour in the 1980s - with the implication that they will keep the Tories out of power, let Labour in through the middle, and will eventually fade into insignificance as all protest parties are fated to do.
I would suggest that this is a misreading of the situation.
The analogy is more with the Official Unionist Party and how it became eclipsed and replaced by the Democratic Unionist Party.
The SDP was an elite movement that achieved a modicum of popular support among the electorate but ultimately failed to take away much in the way of members from the Labour party.
The DUP was a populist party from the start and attracted members and activists away from the Official Unionists until all that was left was the elite.
And ultimately the DUP was so successful it took power.
That should be a sobering thought for those lefties currently delighting in the difficulties created for the Conservatives by the rise of UKIP.
Bizarrely he also refers to the Conservative Party membership total for 1953 (what possible relevance can that have to the situation in 2013?).
Commentators have fallen into a lazy sort of agreement that UKIP is doing to the Conservatives what the SDP did to Labour in the 1980s - with the implication that they will keep the Tories out of power, let Labour in through the middle, and will eventually fade into insignificance as all protest parties are fated to do.
I would suggest that this is a misreading of the situation.
The analogy is more with the Official Unionist Party and how it became eclipsed and replaced by the Democratic Unionist Party.
The SDP was an elite movement that achieved a modicum of popular support among the electorate but ultimately failed to take away much in the way of members from the Labour party.
The DUP was a populist party from the start and attracted members and activists away from the Official Unionists until all that was left was the elite.
And ultimately the DUP was so successful it took power.
That should be a sobering thought for those lefties currently delighting in the difficulties created for the Conservatives by the rise of UKIP.
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