Wednesday, June 01, 2011

In the long run, looking as far as we can realistically see


Economics discussion in an upstairs room off Whitehall.  About forty people present.  As usual I took a seat near the back.

The topic under discussion was the shift of global economic power from the West to the seven key emerging nations (China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey and Russia).
 

The speaker was a well-known (perhaps you could even say eminent) economist.  Aged about 55, desiccated-looking lined face, grey hair.  Wearing a light grey suit, darker grey shirt, grey striped tie - against the grey walls of the room he almost disappeared.  His speaking style was patrician.  He managed the meeting in a sober and unhurried way, ignoring raised hands ("I'll take questions at the end").  His one objective during the two hours was to churn out facts, facts, facts.

"Chinese banks are huge now in asset terms and can buy up western banks.  This creates huge opportunities for the UK.  The Chinese are mad for gadgets, which so far the Japanese are producing..."

The very large person sitting in front of me shifted in his seat, briefly eclipsing the top table.

"...therefore in the long run, looking as far as we can realistically see, shares of the world economy will more or less correspond to shares of the world population.  But the populations of Russia and China are aging fast.  The younger-for-longer economies need to be considered properly..."

The dry air in the room and the heat made me feel drowsy, the droning sound of the speaker had a soporific effect.

"...demographics is one of the drivers of growth.  Percentage of population at working age is significant.  India will probably grow faster than China because of demographics..."

I began to feel tired.

"...Indonesia already has the fourth biggest economy population in the world..."

A change of tone indicated the speaker was coming to the end of his address.

"...within twenty years the seven larger emerging economies will be bigger than the G7 in both Purchasing Power Parity and Market Exchange Rate terms BUT income per capita will remain higher in the G7".

Polite applause, sustained over two minutes.  Questions followed, including several statements masquerading as questions.  At an opportune moment I slipped out of the door at the back.

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