My assessment is that the Conservatives will gain a tiny majority - but that will leave them very vulnerable to by-elections.
It is inevitable that incumbency will deliver a late boost. There is a significant number of don't-knows who WILL vote, and will vote "safety-first". Which will boost the Conservatives.
More analysis: http://electionsetc.com/2015/04/03/forecast-update-3-april-2015/
It is inevitable that incumbency will deliver a late boost. There is a significant number of don't-knows who WILL vote, and will vote "safety-first". Which will boost the Conservatives.
More analysis: http://electionsetc.com/2015/04/03/forecast-update-3-april-2015/
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