Tuesday, April 07, 2015

Incumbency will deliver a late boost

My assessment is that the Conservatives will gain a tiny majority - but that will leave them very vulnerable to by-elections.

It is inevitable that incumbency will deliver a late boost.  There is a significant number of don't-knows who WILL vote, and will vote "safety-first".  Which will boost the Conservatives.

More analysis:  http://electionsetc.com/2015/04/03/forecast-update-3-april-2015/

No comments: