Guardian leader writer Tom Clark tells us that Labour is ten points ahead of the Conservatives in a new poll http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/sep/24/labour-lead-tories-icm-poll
And yet that does not square with other evidence (not least my own straw poll surveys).
What can be happening here?
Possibly I am only talking to Tories and am getting a skewed picture of reality.
But this article by Rick Nye http://ricknye.tumblr.com/ indicates that a "spiral of silence" is obscuring the real intentions of voters.
Which indicates lots of people are publicly sympathising with the anti-cuts campaigns, but privately they intend to vote for austerity.
It makes sense from a self-interest point of view. If you have a job the last thing you want is economic risk-taking that might end in another downturn. Better to flat-line than take risks.
Selfish, self-defeating, self-limiting maybe, but I think it is how people are assessing the situation.
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