David "Danny" Blanchflower, former member of the Monetary Policy Committee, speaking at Citiwire NMA this week:
(from my notes)
* The Bank of England base rate will be less than 1% for the next five years.
* Germany is about to go back into recession.
* Effectively (ignoring the government's manipulation of the figures) the United Kingdom will not come out of recession until 2011 at the absolute earliest.
* Unemployment will rise to 3 million.
* Youth unemployment is creating a lost generation.
* Two and a quarter million people are not employed and are not unemployed - they have dropped off the labour force.
* More 23-year-olds are unemployed now than at any time in the past twenty years.
* Wages will remain low for a very long time.
* House prices will fall another 20 to 25%.
* The UK consumer is in for a shock - inflation will reach 8% within three years, and that will come on so quickly it will take everyone by surprise.
* The UK's credit rating is secure - there is no prospect of the UK being down-rated unless unemployment reaches four million.
* Social unrest is a serious possibility (when asked what the best investment to be made David Blanchflower said "a gun" because of the risk of social breakdown).
Presumably the politicians know all this, and yet they are not saying a word to the rest of us. David Blanchflower was sacked from the Monetary Policy Committee when he started to speak out of line. What is to be done?
No comments:
Post a Comment