What will happen to the Liberal Democrats

Above:  quote from Andrew Rawnsley in today's Observer.  He is a very experienced political commentator.  But in this instance I think it is possible he may be wrong.

On Sunday Politics this afternoon Andrew Neil interviewed Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg.

Everyone is waiting to see what will happen to the Liberal Democrats in the council elections on 3rd May, and to draw conclusions for the general election in 2015.

My own view is that the demise of the Liberal Democrats can only benefit the Conservatives.

Since the mid-1990s there had been an unofficial, barely acknowledged, "get the Tories out" agreement between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.  In Conservative seats where Labour was second Liberal Democrats would vote Labour.  In Conservative seats where a Liberal Democrat was second Labour supporters would vote Liberal Democrat.

The 1997 landslide and subsequent Labour victories only make sense if you factor in Liberal Democrat votes.

The Coalition pact of 2010 broke that unofficial understanding between Labour and the Liberal Democrats (in that respect David Cameron proved himself to be a master of strategy).

Therefore as Liberal Democrat support evaporates their vote will atomise in a mercurial fashion, but the chief beneficiaries in the 2015 election can only be the Conservatives.

The May council elections need to be analysed with caution.  The pattern to look for is what happens in council seats where Conservatives are second to Labour or second to Liberal Democrats.  That might indicate what will happen in 2015.