What the Budget might mean

The Budget was held yesterday in which the Chancellor laid before Parliament the government's tax and spend programme.

Since yesterday there has been an enormous amount of comment about what the Budget might mean for various demographic groups in the United Kingdom.

Which makes me ask:  what group is most influential politically (by which I mean will take political decisions as a result of this and succeeding budgets until the election).

On the whole I think the most influential group is the one where spending is more or less equal to expenditure.  These are households which are just managing to survive the current economic situation.  They may not be able to pay off their credit cards but they can meet the monthly payments.  They may not be able to pay off the capital on their mortgage but they can pay the interest.  They may not be able to go abroad this year, but they can manage a short break in the United Kingdom.  They grumble about rising prices but by making modest economies they can afford most (reasonable) things their lifestyle requires.

This just-getting-by demographic is huge.  At the moment they are worried about the future but also congratulating themselves that they are surviving.  If the Chancellor can bring this demographic safely through to 2015 and beyond without any upset they will probably reward his party with their votes.