He told me that the Iranian situation is going to become very serious

(Above): We had our coffee in the vestibule-lounge, where we sat on a sofa looking into the bar

Thursday. After work I sat around until 6, then drove across to Buckden near Huntingdon. I had never been to the tiny town (big village?) before. I parked my car opposite a lively pub called The Vine and walked back down to The George hotel. The night was dry, but very cold. The long street was deserted (Buckden seems to consist entirely of this street, which must have been the old Great North Road before it was diverted into the A1 motorway).

The George Hotel is an old coaching inn that has been adapted into a comfortable hotel. It consists of a very long red brick Georgian block that rises three storeys and stretches for some length along the high street, the façade austere, punctuated half-way along by the old arch where coaches and horses would go through to the former yard. This arch has now been filled by the hotel reception area. The former yard is now occupied by an extension containing the restaurant and bar. I walked round to the side of the hotel where I could see a paved area (ornamental topiary in containers) with a simple white colonnade framing an modest entrance. Through the door, I entered a cream coloured vestibule that doubled as a lounge, furnished in reproduction Biedermeier (the whole establishment looked as if it had been recently refurbished). To my right was a small reading room with comfy chairs and a set of 19th century bound volumes of the Illustrated London News. To my left was the bar area. Directly ahead was a short passage leading to the hotel reception, and walking towards me was Gary Spencer.

Gary had suggested meeting at the hotel on his way back to Hertfordshire from meeting a client in Leicester. We went immediately into the restaurant which was bright, white and very smart. We were the only people in the restaurant for about twenty minutes and then it suddenly filled up, every table being taken. Wild boar in a rocket salad, venison with carrots and Dauphinoise potatos (I also had a side order of fat chips), sultana pudding with custard. One glass of Merlot wine. We had our coffee in the vestibule-lounge, where we sat on a sofa looking into the bar.

We talked about plans for the year ahead, and Gary suggested going to America in November and driving from Boston to Chicago. I suggested flying to Florida and driving westwards as far as Texas (a warmer alternative - the only thing I know about Chicago is that it is cold in November). We decided to ask Robert Leiper to join us.

Gary Spencer then became very grave (an unusual mood for him) and began to talk despondently about Iran and the likelihood of an international crisis in the Middle East. Being a financial advisor, he has a very narrow expertise which counter-balances his other interests of football, Florida holidays and family life. When he talks about politics it is not ordinary speculations based on items in the news media, but specific issues with financial implications. He told me that the Iranian situation is going to become very serious and that if I want to make some money I should be buying gold. I sat and listened to him without comment. And I thought: if things are really that bad, why aren’t we reading about it in the newspapers?