Saturday, August 08, 2015

His momentum has been based on what in marketing we call "early adopters"

Has Jeremy Corbyn peaked I wonder?

He was always the "none of the above" catch-all option, but he has used the opportunity to sketch out a reasonably coherent programme of policies and build momentum.

But his momentum has been based on what in marketing we call "early adopters".  And the problem with early adopters is that as soon as momentum builds and less "hip happening cool" supporters join the cause the trendsetters lose interest ("been there, done that...").  That is the fatal moment when a campaign can fall between two stools - too many young trendy hipsters moving away and not enough mainstreamers coming in to build critical mass.

Remember the salutary experience of presidential hopeful Howard Dean in 2006.  His trajectory was very similar to that currently being followed Jeremy Corbyn, until mainstream endorsers (from political establishment, media, entertainment luvvies) made him look uncool.  Then like Icarus he crashed and burned.

When the creepy-crawlies (not an exact term, but I mean those people in every party that always gravitate to the centre of power) start jumping on the Corbyn bandwaggon the early adopters will start jumping off.  And yet critical mass is impossible without the heliotropic creepy-crawlies.  Indeed Blair constructed his movement entirely composed of creepy-crawlies.

And the Economist makes a very valid point - Corbyn is a conservative (small "c") not a radical (that's why I sneakingly like him) and this truth will eventually out.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/07/corbyn-says-his-campaign-has-captured-anti-austerity-mood-labour-leadership-election

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21660599-labours-prospective-next-leader-may-be-partys-hard-left-he-no-radical-jeremy

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