Sunday, June 22, 2014

The uniform swing mechanism will break down

On Sunday Politics Peter Kellner said that the uniform swing mechanism will break down in next year's general election.

This seems obvious once one starts to think about it.

In the old three-party model the incumbent party would hemorrhage the support of the non-aligned voters - hemorrhage to the Opposition and hemorrhage to the Liberal Democrats until a tipping point was reached and power would shift from one main party to the other.

Now the non-aligned voters have their own party (UKIP).  They do not need an ideologically complex protest vehicle like the Liberal Democrats.  UKIP is a simple and easy party to understand.

And it is the non-aligned UKIP that is soaking up the disillusioned from all three parties.

Therefore 2015 is going to be largely unpredictable.

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