Saturday, June 07, 2014

The most sensible analysis I have yet read about the Newark

This article by Phil Burton-Cartledge is the most sensible analysis I have yet read about the Newark by-election:  http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/politics-after-newark.html

As he says, UKIP are not going away because the social forces that have shaped it are not going away.

Labour and the Conservatives must either internalise UKIP policy (on immigration and the EU) or "win the argument against UKIP" or become marginalised by UKIP.

Consider if the Newark by-election had been early May instead of early June.

The perception would be entirely different.

The by-election, the council elections, the EU elections - it would have been seen as a rising crescendo.

But because the order has been council elections, EU elections, Newark the soothsayers are saying UKIP is a busted flush.

Enthusiasm wins elections (positive votes are simply a transfer of enthusiasm from the canvasser to the voter).

Phil Burton-Cartledge says Labour is lacking enthusiasm.  I look around the Conservative party and I do not see much in the way of enthusiasm.  The only enthusiasts are in UKIP.

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